Category Archives: Models

Sapiens Lacuna (wisdom from Bill James)

Posted on May 6, 2011 by

the alternative to good statistics is not “no statistics,” it’s bad statistics. People who argue against statistical reasoning often end up backing up their arguments with whatever numbers they have at their command, over- or under-adjusting in their eagerness to … Continue reading →

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Quantifying Risk, consider Fukushima earthquake predictions

Posted on March 25, 2011 by

Can be harder than it seems. I found this on “The Statistics Forum” of ASA and Chance http://statisticsforum.wordpress.com/2011/03/23/quantifying-uncertainty-is-never-easy/ Many of questioned why the Fukushima reactor was built to withstand only 8.3 in that part of the world known for seismic … Continue reading →

Posted in metacognition, Models, risk, uncertainty | 6 Comments

Planning with Historical data, correlation.

Posted on February 11, 2011 by

When planning, it’s useful to know how well your plans predict your actual performance. For example, in PSP, correlation is measured between estimated and actual size and between estimated size and actual effort. We can also correlate between planned and … Continue reading →

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